On stage

FD

Francis Dearnley

Moderator · The Telegraph

TB

Sir Tony Baldry

former UK minister

IC

Ilona Chmelova

Economic Security Council of Ukraine

SB

Stephanie Baker

Bloomberg

The panel examined how Ukraine's economic resilience and the weakening of Russia's economy are two sides of the same security effort. Discussion centred on the unrealised potential of sanctions — especially untargeted Russian oil revenues and loopholes exploited via China and India — and on the political paralysis around frozen Russian assets. Panellists also weighed how to attract post-war investment through rule of law, an independent commercial court, and public-private "match funding," and warned of Russian influence inside Western decision-making.

The substance

Key takeaways

1

Moderator Francis Dearnley cautioned that the economic front is the subject "most open to hyperbole," recalling repeated predictions over the years that either Ukraine or Russia was about to economically collapse — neither of which happened — and used this to steer the panel away from dramatic headlines toward structural realities.

2

Stephanie Baker argued the existing sanctions regime, though unprecedented, is "full of loopholes," and laid out concrete unused levers: sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil, kicking remaining Russian banks off SWIFT, blacklisting the shadow fleet, and — echoing the Iran playbook — sequestering Russian oil revenues in buyer countries to create negotiating leverage rather than relying on blunt secondary tariffs.

3

Sir Tony Baldry stressed that investor confidence hinges on rule of law, advocating an independent international commercial court in Kyiv under UK-style arbitration (as in Kazakhstan or the UAE), plus a match-funded Marshall Plan pairing private capital with public money — and warned this must be planned before the war ends, "because by the time the war ends, it will be too late."

4

On the frozen ~$350 billion in Russian assets, the panel converged on a failure of political will: Baker noted advocates once thought seizure "inevitable" yet it still hasn't happened, Baldry traced how early momentum (Liz Truss's pledge) died in the "too-difficult category" over fears of setting a precedent, and Ilona Chmelova argued as a lawyer that Russia's *erga omnes* violations make this legally distinct and that Russia "shall not be rewarded" by leaving the money as a bargaining chip.

5

Chmelova called for economic instruments — sanctions, export controls, investment screening — to shift from defensive to proactive, warning that "the elephant in the room is actually China," which is already helping Russia evade sanctions and supplying components for the drones attacking Ukrainian cities, a point Dearnley said a Telegraph investigation that week had corroborated.

In their words

Key quotes

“

Putin is out to destroy Ukraine, not just militarily but economically.

Stephanie Baker

“

building a strong Ukrainian economy is impossible without making the Russian economy weaker.

Ilona Chmelova

“

I think we need to start planning that now, because by the time the war ends, it will be too late to plan it at that time.

Sir Tony Baldry

Full transcript

The complete transcript of this session is being prepared for publication after a review pass.

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